The Reconfiguration of the Security System in the Indo-Pacific

LusoGlobe Research in Charge: Vasco Rato and Teresa Nogueira Pinto

LusoGlobe Research in Charge

LusoGlobe Research in Charge: Vasco Rato and Teresa Nogueira Pinto

End

Abstract

After World War II, a security system was constructed in Asia, under the leadership of the United States, based on bilateral security treaties. The main goal was to contain the Soviet Union. Until the 1970s, the strategy was to isolate the People's Republic of China and prevent communist movements, including in Vietnam, from seizing power in the region. With the end of the Cold War and the concurrent emergence of China as a regional power, a strategy of "enlargement" was adopted — later known as the Clinton Doctrine, whose main lines were followed by George W. Bush and Barack Obama — based on three interconnected pillars: globalization, the expansion of free trade, and political democratization. Coinciding with the American unipolar moment, the "enlargement" strategy showed clear signs of exhaustion in the early years of the 21st century, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis. The process of Chinese regional affirmation led to the destabilization of the prevailing balance. In this context, the Obama administration proposed a "pivot to Asia" — in other words, a shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific — to reshape the international security environment.

This "pivot" was consolidated by the administrations of Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who have redefined this geostrategic space by designating it as the Indo-Pacific. Washington has been restructuring its bilateral relationships and creating new security mechanisms — for example, AUKUS and the Quad — to counter China's growing assertiveness in the region, though with global implications.

However, there is still some ambiguity about the role reserved for European allies and the Atlantic Alliance itself in this new security architecture. But since several European countries consider they have vital interests in the region — France and the United Kingdom have territories in the Indo-Pacific, and the European Union's trade relations with countries in the region are extremely relevant — it is crucial to analyze how the security of the Atlantic space can be reconciled, and, if possible, on what terms, with the new security architecture in the Indo-Pacific.

The research, encompassing both military and economic-financial dimensions, will be framed by the most recent academic literature. The goal is to develop conclusions that are relevant for policy formulation.

Researchers

Vasco Rato (senior researcher, coordinator)
Teresa Nogueira Pinto (junior reseatcher)

Associated Missions

The relevance of the project is tied to two fundamental questions. First, clarifying the nature of the current security system and anticipating its evolution, as this process will inevitably involve several international crises. Second, considering how the security regimes in the Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific will converge/diverge, and consequently exploring some of the challenges that will arise in the coming years, particularly their impact on the Euro-Atlantic space.

The project is being developed in partnership with the National Defense Institute (IDN), a Portuguese public institution that supports the formulation and development of national strategic thinking in areas related to security and defense, encouraging the elaboration and discussion of aspects related to national strategic thinking.

The outputs and conclusions of the project are expected to contribute to policy formulation.

Outputs

1 article for Nação e Defesa
1 paper for Cadernos IDN
1 conference organized with the research partner, to be held in the last quarter of 2024 or early 2025.
1 Talk Series – Bimonthly series of conversations with ambassadors from countries of the Indo-Pacific region.

Funding and Institution