On July 25, 2025, a new report was published on Zenodo by graduate students of the Master’s in Diplomacy and International Relations at Universidade Lusófona, under the supervision of Prof Sabrina Medeiros. Titled “Strategic Scenario Report: How Donald Trump Influences the Interests of the European Union in the International System”, the publication presents an in-depth foresight analysis of the consequences of Donald Trump’s second term as President of the United States.
Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology, the report examines potential disruptions to the EU’s strategic interests across multiple global dimensions, including multilateral cooperation (UN, WHO, Paris Agreement), trade (TTIP), security (NATO), migration, and relations with China and Ukraine.
Key Highlights
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The report organizes its analysis around seven key themes, prioritized through AHP modeling, and developed by thematic working groups of researchers.
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The findings demonstrate how Trump’s return to office reinforces unilateralism, protectionism, and nationalist rhetoric, challenging the EU’s normative leadership and multilateral commitments.
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The report offers practical recommendations for reinforcing the EU’s strategic autonomy and cohesion in a volatile international order.
This publication is the result of an academic exercise in strategic foresight and prospective diplomacy, combining theoretical reflection and empirical assessment. It reflects the commitment of the LusoGlobe Centre to fostering critical thinking, applied analysis, and student-led research on global challenges.
The full report is available for open access on Zenodo: